A new survey conducted by Argus on Friday showed that OPEC+ production fell to 38.29 million bpd last month, 1.81 million bpd below its reduced quota.
The 19 OPEC+ members subject to the quota produced 310,000 barrels per day less in November than the previous month. But that’s still 1.81 million bpd below its November quota. The cut in November was a drop of 2 million bpd from October levels, although it was understood at the time that the group might not be able to meet even that low target.
Non-OPEC+ members of the OPEC group fared better than traditional OPEC members, increasing combined production by 460,000 barrels per day – the highest level in eight months, according to Argos. Most of those increases came from Kazakhstan, which saw production increase by 330,000 bpd, and Russia, which saw output increase by 190,000 bpd after Sakhalin 1 restarted.
OPEC crude production fell by 770,000 barrels per day for the month of November, the lowest level in six months. Saudi Arabia led the drop in production, with production down by 440,000 barrels per day.
According to Argus, the biggest lag among the expanded OPEC+ group is Russia, which is producing 670,000 bpd below target. Nigeria is producing 530,000 bpd below target, Angola is producing 350,000 bpd below target and Malaysia is producing 170,000 bpd below target.
Group members that have met or exceeded their production target are Oman, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Gabon.
In total, non-OPEC members produce less than 92,000 bpd, while OPEC members produce part of the quota less than 90,000 bpd.
Crude oil prices have fallen significantly this week, leading some to speculate that the OPEC+ group may cut oil production to support crude prices. Brent was expected to end the week above $10 this time last week – well below what most analysts believe was OPEC’s motivation to defend prices.
By Julian Geiger
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